We have identified eight candidates in races currently projected by the leading experts as toss-ups with the potential to swing control of the House.  This list is based on researching dozens of close races, looking at previous election results in those districts, and checking candidates' relative fundraising positions. We also have researched these candidates' positions on climate change, assessing their policy statements and actions, voting records and endorsements from leading climate advocacy groups in order to select reliable supporters of climate-related legislation.

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These are key races where your time and/or money can do the most good. We urge you to give them your support.

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Rebecca Cooke WI-03          https://cookeforwisconsin.com/

WI-03 is one of the eight races that is a consensus pick* to be decided by a razor-thin margin. The Democratic candidate, Rebecca Cooke, is running again against the incumbent, having lost in 2024 by about 11,000 votes. With drag on the incumbent from the Iran war, affordability, and Trump's low approval ratings, Cooke should expect a real uptick in votes. 

Raised on a Wisconsin dairy farm, Cooke founded Red's Mercantile to sell local products and Red Letter Grants, a non-profit to support female entrepreneurs., Also, she still waitresses, so she can relate to many types of people. These efforts earned her appointment by the governor to the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation.

Along with her focus on affordability and health care for workers, she spells out in unusually detailed terms what is important to her regarding climate change. It is one of the most comprehensive candidate statements we have seen, covering renewable energy, small nuclear plants, PFAS pollution, farm run-off, mass transit, and corporate polluters.

Derrick Van Orden, the Republican incumbent, has voted against clean energy spending and for lowering automobile fuel economy standards, earning a  9% rating from the League of Conservation Voters (LCV). He has more than twice Cooke's cash on hand, so she can use financial support.

* As projected by Cook Political Report, Sabato, Inside Elections, The Hill, and Race to the White House
 

Christina Bohannan IA-01          https://bohannanforcongress.com/

Christina Bohannan lost to her Republican opponent by exactly 799 votes in 2024, so the much more favorable climate for Democratic candidates this year should put her in a strong position to compete and win IA-01, which is one of the eight consensus picks to be decided by a razor-thin margin.

Bohannan knows all too well the struggles of working folks, having grown up in a doublewide trailer in a town of 700. Her dad's illness taught her about the difficulties facing working families unable to get health care. She worked her way through high school and college waitressing, picking fruit, and cleaning homes.

With her degree in environmental engineering and her early work with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, she knows climate science and understands the importance of renewable energy and protecting water quality. She speaks to the threat that climate change poses to future generations and to the state's agricultural base, vowing to “invest in Iowa's clean energy economy.”

Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the Republican incumbent, is co-chair of the House Conservative Climate Caucus, which works for market-based solutions, but her voting record is solidly supportive of fossil fuels and against renewable energy and she sports a 9% rating from the League of Conservation Voters.

 

Manny Rutinel CO-08          https://www.mannyforcolorado.com/

In another of the eight consensus picks of expected closest races, Manny Rutinel, a 31 year-old progressive with a masters in economics from Johns Hopkins and a law degree from Yale, is running in CO-08, a district that the Democratic candidate narrowly won by .7 percentage points in '22 and the Republican candidate won by 0.8 percentage points in ‘24.  It is expected to be close again.

Rutinel has impressive environmental credentials, having served as an attorney for Earthjustice and CEO of Climate Refarm, a group advocating for using carbon credits to get farmers to switch land use toward more plant-based products (He is an ex-vegan). In earlier years, Rutinel was critical of some agriculture and cattle farming practices, both important businesses in CO-08, but he has tempered those criticisms more recently.

His opponent is the incumbent, Gabe Evans, who speaks of supporting all forms of energy, including renewables but consistently toes the administration's anti-environment positions, earning him a 6% LCV score. He makes the dishonest claim that CO-08 energy and oil production industries produce “the cleanest and most environmental and socially responsible power anywhere on the planet” and attacks the Democrat's “war on domestic energy."

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Paige Cognetti PA-08          https://paigeforpa.com/

Paige Cognetti, currently the mayor of Scranton, is well-known in this working class city. It is the largest in PA-08, which covers the northeast  corner of the state, including Wilkes-Barre. This is another consensus pick to be a toss-up race in 2026. The Democratic candidate won the district by 2.4 percentage points in 2022, while the Republican candidate won by just 1.6 points in 2024.

With an MBA from Harvard, Cognetti has worked as an investment advisor, senior advisor in the US Treasury Department and advisor to the Pennsylvania Auditor General. As mayor since 2020, she successfully led Scranton out of its financial distress program and implemented infrastructure improvements, attracted new business investment and expanded the city's housing stock.

Cognetti has dealt with the local impacts of climate change in Scranton, especially flooding that has required much greater resiliency and infrastructure improvements. She has called for greater investments in renewable energy to help create good jobs, drive down costs to consumers and reduce global warming.

Republican Rob Bresnahan, narrowly elected in 2024, is vulnerable. After running on banning stock trading by members of Congress, he has registered over 600 personal stock trades while in office. And after promising to protect health care for his constituents, he voted to take away coverage for about 25,000 district residents. He has a 9% score from LCV.

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JoAnna Mendoza AZ-06          https://www.joannamendoza.com/

AZ-06 lies in the southeast corner of the state, a generally wealthy, predominantly white area. The Republican incumbent won by narrow margins of 1.5 percentage points  in 2022 and 2.5 points in 2024, so this race is projected to be close again, especially with the Republican party fighting against losses in popularity tied to inflation and the Iran war.

JoAnna Mendoza grew up in a farming family and worked in southern Arizona's cotton fields. She had a 20 year career in the military, retiring as a Marine drill instructor. Subsequently, she has served as leader of a non-profit, veterans advocate, and congressional staffer.

She is a strong advocate for clean energy, particularly solar that can come on line quickly, lower costs, and protect air quality. In an area where water scarcity is a crucial issue, she also focuses on strengthening the water infrastructure, protecting groundwater, and cleaning up PFAS contamination.

Juan Ciscomani, the Republican incumbent, has voted along party lines to roll back clean energy investments. A vice chair of the Conservative Climate Caucus that argues for market-based solutions and less regulation, he has a 7% score from LCV. His campaign has attacked Mendoza on social issues such as support for LGBT youth rather than on more substantive issues.

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Sarah Trone Garriott IA-03          https://sarahforiowa.com/

With a degree from Harvard Divinity School, Garriott has focused on a life of service, working in a hospital chaplaincy before becoming a Lutheran pastor. In 2020, she won a seat in the Iowa Senate, the first of three elections she won in districts that voted for Trump.

Garriott is the only candidate we have seen who makes climate change her lead issue, opening her campaign website with a banner proclaiming her focus to be “Protecting Iowa's Land, Water, and Clean Energy Future.” She goes on to say: “I'll support investments in clean energy like wind, solar, and biofuels...and I'll work with farmers to promote sustainable practices that keep our soil healthy and our water safe. We can tackle climate change and strengthen our economy at the same time.”

Zach Nunn, the two-term Republican incumbent, won by just .7 percentage points in 2022, widening his margin to 3.9 points in 2024. With the drag on the Republican party from inflation and the Iran war, the race is expected to be very close.

Nunn has voted to roll-back clean energy incentives and environmental regulations, arguing for market-based solutions. He has a 6% score from LCV.

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Elaine Luria VA-02          https://elaineforcongress.com/

Elaine Luria is running to retake the seat she first won in 2018 and lost by 3.4 percentage points to her current MAGA-aligned opponent Jennifer Kiggans in 2022.

Luria is a Naval Academy graduate who spent 20 years in the Navy, operating nuclear reactors as an engineer and rising to the rank of commander.

As a member of Congress, she was on the Democrat Coalition Climate Change Task Force, especially outspoken about the impact of recurrent flooding and sea level rise on her coastal district and its naval base at Norfolk, warning that environmental problems are risks to the public and to national security. Because VA-02 is the land base for construction of the largest off-shore wind farm, which Luria promoted while in and out of office, Trump’s efforts to kill wind-generated electrical energy, and the jobs that go with it, should be a potent election issue in Luria’s favor.

Incumbent Jen Kiggans voted for Republican legislation to gut clean energy tax credits even though she has long portrayed herself as a champion of renewable energy. Although she had advocated construction of wind farms in this district, she aligned herself with Trump’s anti-wind energy dictate and dropped the issue. She has an 11% score from LCV.

 

Kathy Castor FL-14          https://castorforcongress.com/

Republicans’ recent redistricting in Florida clearly targeted Kathy Castor, a seven-term Democratic incumbent, redrawing her district into one that Trump would have won by 11 percentage points in 2024. She still has the advantage of name recognition and popularity in the remaining segments of the old district, so that, along with the drag on Republicans from inflation and the war, she has a shot.

She has a history of advocacy on climate issues as Chair of a select committee on the climate crisis that crafted a plan of action. She knows the legislative territory, is an “old hand” with seniority, and has called out the fossil fuel industry: 

           “Big Oil and their allies in Washington have had a stranglehold over our country’s energy policy, and unfortunately families and                 businesses across America are paying the price.”

Mike Beltran, her Republican challenger, heavily promotes his support for President Trump, takes the conservative postures on energy and regulation, and has voted to remove mentions of climate change from Florida state statutes.